Friday, August 30, 2013

Happy Labor Day

What an interesting week we just had. Looked like stocks were going to continue their climb until fear from the Syrian conflict gave some longs a wake up call for a day. But just like every other sell of this year, it was just a nice buying opportunity. The threat of military action couldn't have been telegraphed any better for the markets. Once the initial fear and shock was over, equities continued their climb into new highs for some and just an overall run up for others.

The Labor Day weekend ends a week and a half long travel vacation for me. I have been a lot less active yet still following my favorite names and starting to look at positions for next week. Be weary though, markets are closed on Monday so we have a shortened trading week. Not ideal for weekly options.  Here is what I am watching and trading plans.



This name has been consolidation about its break out from the 1st of August. With volume coming down below average and price trading at the top of the range, I think this name is poised for a break out on a nice volume day. Above $244 on more then 2 million daily average volume would be my entry.



I am watching this name purely on momentum.  I traded this one successfully last week based on the support at $40. It held and has continued to go higher since the sell off on Tuesday and even continues higher in the Pre Market today. High volume in the 42 call strike price had peaked my interest for more upside into next week.  I initialed calls at the strike price for .66 a contract.



This has been a nice trade to the upside the last few weeks. But since the close below $500, I think it will be a tough one to get back above. With an announcement looming, I don't see much to get it above $500. A fall out of this wedge as well as a small bear flag the last week could see lower prices before the actual release of the new iPhone. I am always careful though with this name because it can move fast against you before you even realize it.


I am looking forward to the start of the fall trading season. Next week should see some increased volume with more players coming back from summer hiatus. Although I am not expecting much of an increase since it seems many of the players stuck around for the summer rally. Happy Labor Day everyone and happy trading.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

$GOOG support and rally

Last week I was posting about $GOOG and it's drop below the lower raising support line. The trade worked well into the end of the week. But this week, it is finding support at the 100s sma.  I am now looking at a trade higher off that line as the markets come back from the last few days of sell off.

After a few days below the 100d sma, it has found some strength the last two days to stay about the line. Today looks like a consolidation day as bulls and bears fight it out and we close right in the middle of the days action.  A strong market today will only give fuel to rally through the rest of the weak. 

Happy Trading.

Thursday, August 15, 2013


Pretty nasty day out there today. Indexes taking a big hit and not a lot of names holding on.

I want to continue to talk about $GOOG and it's continuing movement in our plan. As my previous post on Monday, Is More Correction In Store?, we have hit the first target of $861. Actually, it has been holding there all day so far. The $861 target support is pretty strong. But I am holding steady on this plan.  If it breaks this support, I am looking for $844 - $845 as the next target.


If this sell off today is the start of a greater correction, I am looking at some names that might be good shorts or Put opportunities.  One that jumped out is $LNKD

After a great earnings pop, the name has consolidated in the $230 - $240 area. This would be something I would be looking at for a break out higher normally. But given today's action and the weakness we have seen overall in the last few days, a break below this box could lead to a gap fill. Today is averaging higher than average volume and if another day follows through to the down side, it could get ugly here.  Looking for a break and close below $228

Happy Trading!

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

$GOOG follow-Up

Looking back at my post from $GOOG yesterday, the drop below the lower raising trend line held and now today, we are seeing the sell off. Still have a target of the 100d SMA for right now.  Course is continuing in the direction we planned with no reason to stop.  With the day averaging 3.5m shares traded, everything looks good for the drop.


I wanted to comment back on $AAPL today since yesterday I was weary about the premarket pop. I was looking for a fade at the open but clearly we did not see this. This is one of those situations where when things don't go as you planned, it is time to re-evaluate your plan. Yesterday was a strong day for $AAPL and today is just a nice follow through.  As long as the 200d SMA holds and the RSI doesn't push above 70, $AAPL finally has the strength to keep moving up. A move in the next few weeks to fill the gap from January is completely possible given the price movement. I would like to see some more volume come in on the move up though, if it is going make it to $500.

Happy Trading!

Monday, August 12, 2013

Is more correction in store?

Last week we saw some pretty good selling. Momentum may have the same fate in store for this week. 1700 was the line in the sand for the S&P and it turned back pretty hard. I am going to take the time this morning and take a look at $GOOG

$GOOG has had a long run up from September of last year when it bounced off the 200d SMA.  A few pull back but at this point it has been oscillating over and under 900 for a few months now. Over, under, over, under. Looking at a shorter frame chart of 150 days, I am watching a break below this lower rising channel line. A retest of the 100d sma and the breakout level from 5/6/13 of $844 would be the first target. If the market overall keeps selling off, then I think it can test the support at $761.  If it holds instead and rallies back above the 50d sma, then it can easily be back in the 900's again. An easy trade back and forth.


Just a side note with $AAPL announcing a new iphone release. I think my wife's reaction to this news (a phone customer from the beginning and not an investor) sums it all up. "Yeah, it's about that time."  News that even the everyday customer already knows will happen and expects is not really news at all. Watch for a quick fade off this mornings gap up.

Happy Trading!

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Financials Rally

It's the start of another week here and taking a fresh look at different sector. Last week only one name I looked out worked out. $LNKD in was a name that I was looking at to continue higher after it's breakout before it's earnings call. Remember, we were very cautious because it was an earnings week for the name but given the success of $FB and $LNKD, it worked out well.

I also was looking for $NFLX to sell off. That didn't happen last week but the chart is holding flat so I am rolling my thesis over till this week. You can review my thoughts last week on my previous post $NFLX Bear Case

But this week I am noticing a lot of financial names are bumping right up against new highs. So far this year, the market has just kept going up against all odds. We have seen slight pullbacks but nothing to scare bulls out to the sidelines. So if this all keeps up, the push of these names into new highs can be a launching pad. I am watching volume at these highs to see if there are buyers backing it up.

Bull flag with a breakout to hit the highs. It was turned away at the end of the week and volume is moving lower.  Watch for a breakout over 53.50 on volume.

Bull flag as you will see with all these financial names. Moving out of the flag back to the highs. Watch for volume over 168.25

56.95 is the target to break here on volume as well. You can see the pattern of flagging and breakouts.  I want to see volume over 17 million on the day.
Over 28 would be the entry point. Another flag that has broken out. Volume is weak here but if buyers come in and the market follows, higher prices can follow. 

What to look for is all these names to raise.  If they can't make these new highs, they will drop back into the flags and possible start breaking down. They have already retested the highs twice so another fail to take new highs will probably cause some weakness. 

Happy Trading.