Wednesday, January 1, 2014

$FB into the New Year

Happy New Year to everyone out there.  I haven't posted in a while. Been getting through the holidays and spent a lot of time adjusting some strategies that weren't working.  I thought I would start out this new year with a post on $FB

I have been spending a lot of time watching the posts scroll by in the $FB stocktwits page and have seen some really interesting stuff. Lots of pumping and bashing as well. Cheerleaders will cheer for a team even if they are down by 10 touchdowns at the half. Just part of the whole psychology of the market. Either way, I have a less then bullish outlook for the near term on it. I followed it down last week via puts and did very well.  I rolled some puts over to this weeks 55 strike at .36. Up over 100% on these so far and held them though the holiday.

Basically, if you look down at my chart, I am looking at a cup and handle pattern for the most part.  The cup formed for 8 weeks and then made a very short handle. Almost a no handle, cup and handle pattern. Dec 23rd gave way to a large breakout. But couldn't hold. Two days later, it sold off and continued until it broke back down into the cup on rising negative volume.  At this point, I am not trading on the cup and handle pattern since I look at it as a failed pattern. Any chance to break back to new highs will need to base and consolidate first.  There is only roughly a 2.5% short float so a squeeze isn't part of the equation.

Tuesday saw a brief relief day but without closing back above the top of the cup, and volume being half of the daily average, conviction seemed to be missing. Right now, I see $FB needing to test the 50d sma before it can try and based.

Hope everyone had a wonderful and safe New Years Eve. See you tomorrow and happy trading.

Follow me on stocktwits @JrsyFightsJosh

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

$FB, $TWTR and $C Shorten Week

It looks like I was a week early on my $FB trade from last week as the MM's kept it from failing support until a new week. Yesterday, it finally broke below the support and took a great 4% fall at the lowest of the day. It recovered a bit as it bounced off the lower rail of the descending wedge but still below the triple tested support around 45.70ish. Trading about average daily volume, I think we will see that pick up if it continues to sink lower.  The interesting thing to note is that the rest of the social media group sold off with it. That is important to set an overall trend.  The 100d sma will be key for the next support area.

As stated above, the whole social media group fell yesterday, including $TWTR.  There isn't much to go on since it only has about two weeks of trading under its belt, but the weakness trend is pretty prevalent.  40 has been a mental support area for now and as it broke that level today, the selling accelerated. We should see this one get close to it's pre IPO price before it comes back to the mid 40s.   

Inverse to the social media and tech group, financials were positive yesterday. $C broke out of its wedge on Friday last week and today followed through to long term resistance levels. 53.30 creates a new support level and with above average volume, should hold that level. As more volume comes in, I will be looking for a break about 54.56.  Be careful of over bought levels on the RSI. It hasn't held above 70 for more then a few days. But a break above the 54.56 resistance could cause an extended stay in the level.

Remember, the market is closed Thursday so we are working with a shortened week. The day after Thanksgiving has generally been weak.

Happy Trading and Happy Thanksgiving.

Monday, November 18, 2013


Coming off of last week, I did a post or two about $FB and $LNG. I was fairly bullish on $FB. It failed to break out of the falling wedge and today, it is reacting very negative to that.  Here are some of my thoughts.

After hitting the top rail of the wedge, we are seeing a big sell off. The indexes are hitting record highs, and those pesky round numbers.  The $SPX isn't quite sure what to do with 1800 right now and is wavering back and forth around it. Personally, this lack of conviction is a bearish signal to me. I think it will eventually succumb to the sellers and take the slight dip everyone wants to happen.  And $FB will go with it.  I am looking for it to head back down to the lower rail. Maybe hitting some support at 45.6.  That would be a good spot to take some off. If it falls lower, the bottom rail would be the cover.

I didn't watch much of this last week because, quite frankly, it was boring.  It didnt move much and consolidating after breaking above the top rail of the falling wedge.  I think it is going to want to back-test to that rail again. If it holdsabout 519.50 with volume conviction, then it might be a good place to add some long. Otherwise, if it breaks back into the wedge, support will be broken and I would play a short via puts down to $500/ 50d sma.

All this considered is dependent on how the indexes handle these new highs.  A short dip would give a good chance to get long these names at their supports.

Happy Trading!

Friday, November 15, 2013

$FB rally through Opex


I did a post early in the pre-market about $LNG but I wanted to touch on some points and thoughts on $FB going forward past today's monthly options expiration.

For the last few weeks, it has been working on a nice declining wedge coming out of a nice run up since the gap in July. I am watching for a pop above the top line of the wedge which happens to also coincide with the 50d sma and the 18d sma, which I like to reference for short term plays.  I think a convergence of all these points can really give some support for a nice bounce.  As long as volume follows through above average, there is a lot of room to run.  If we get a Friday rally today, I am targeting 51.50. The only obstacle is the options expiration and with 80,000 options contracts at the 50 strike, that will be hard to not pin.

Happy Trading.

$LNG breakout

Hey everyone.

Been watching the action this week without a lot of positions. Yesterday was spent waiting to see where $LNG goes.  I have been in this name since the mid 20's and riding it the whole way. This is a very long position for me since it is my main energy play.

I watch yesterday for a break about the long consolidation channel it had been basing the last few weeks.  We closed above the resistance of 40.85 yesterday and it looks like in the PM we are getting that pop. I got in for more right at the close about the resistance. Going to watch to see if it can hold this pop. Lot's of breakouts have been turned away but the key is to hold about that breakout resistance with volume coming in.

Happy Trading!

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

$T and $SBUX

Yesterdays post involving $LNKD is not panning out quite yet. The momentum seems to be up right now but I still am watching for a retest of the 213 dip. I decided to let this trade simmer on the back burner and focus on two other names; $T and $SBUX

Since earnings, the name has had a good run up. Broke above the 36 area and even started to consolidate. It was a little too choppy for me to be a setup for higher prices but I watched for a break back below 36 for a short attempt. I got in today in a few 36.5 strike puts for .58c.  We got the break below 36 as I am writing this, with a little bounce. But so far I am up 20%. If 36 doesn't get reclaimed by 3pm, I think we see people dump into the close.  That earnings gap is just calling its name and I will use that as a target.

This is a fun one because it just doesn't seem to go down. And as it claims new all time highs today, I took on a few calls to take advantage of last minute hop-ons if it breaks into those highs.  And as I write, the runners are running. I am holding 83 strike call weeklies bought at .13c.  At .26c right now, I am up 100%

I'll be watching both positions into the close.  As well as $LNKD, which I think will give back most of today and head lower the rest of the week.

Happy Trading

Monday, November 4, 2013

Why $LNKD will fall more


Been an interesting day for $LNKD today. After opening lower and then bouncing to daily highs, it showed as if it were going to give it all back on a reversal. But alas, the roller coaster continued and it tested the HOD once more.  As I write this, it is slightly retreating again. But don't let this suck you into buying. The chart today looks good for a bounce today, but that is all I think it is.  If you pull your charts out further, you will see that it is trading below the longer tern lower trend like. Plus, it broke the 100d sma and is now hitting up against it as a resistance. She can't get back into the up trend and should take some lower numbers out first.

Target is roughly $203

Hard to see because the lower trend line almost follows the 100d sma. The two are working together right now as a resistance.

You can see a bit better here that it is below the trend line. Also forming a little bear flag an if it breaks this, it should be quick down to $215 area.

Happy Trading